01/03/09

Soros come specchio della politica degli Stati Uniti nello spazio post-Sovietico

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Viktor Pirozhenko (Ucraina) Strategic Culture Foundation 27.02.2009
Traduzione di Alessandro Lattanzio
Il discorso del Vice presidente degli Stati Uniti Joe Biden al congresso per la sicurezza di Monaco di Baviera ed un certo numero di dichiarazioni meno note, rilasciate dai funzionari degli Stati Uniti, hanno fatto rivivere i dibattiti sulla strategia degli Stati Uniti nello spazio post-Sovietico. Recentemente il noto megaspeculatore finanziario George Soros ha contribuito al dibattito con i suoi articoli sulla politica anticrisi globale sul giornale russo Vedomosti (il socio russo di The Financial Times e di Wall Street Journal) "Global Anticrisis Policy: Create New Money" (10 febbraio), "An Alternative to Geopolitics: the Russian Problem" (12 febbraio) e "A Crisis Landscape: the Geopolitics of Cheap Oil" (16 febbraio).
Soros è stato sempre un sostenitore del partito democratico degli Stati Uniti ed un critico della politica di G. Bush. Le sue idee possono essere considerare come un'espressione degli obiettivi della politica estera dell'amministrazione di B. Obama ed i metodi che sta per impiegare per perseguirle. Soros suggerisce all'Europa una strategia doppia - la difesa contro una nuovamente assertiva ed aggressiva Russia e l'incoraggiamento degli sforzi affinché la democrazia, la società aperta e la cooperazione internazionale prevalgano sulla geopolitica.
Soros scrive: "Una politica chiave per la neutralizzazione del vantaggio geopolitico della Russia la si avrà quando l'Europa concorderà una politica energetica unita, compreso la creazione di un gestore dell'energia dell'UE con poteri superiori a quelli dei gestori nazionali e la creazione di una rete pan-europea di distribuzione. Ciò priverà la Russia della possibilità di mettere i paesi uno contro l'altro". Soros crede che la norma legislativa ed i principi della società aperta (Soros afferma di aver creato il secondo termine) dovrebbero essere promossi indirettamente con l'aiuto della riforma del sistema finanziario internazionale, con un'attenzione speciale verso i paesi vicini alla Russia. Dice che "dovrebbe essere aiutata la Georgia per riprendersi dagli effetti dell'invasione russa" ma le proporzioni del sussidio dovrebbero essere rese contingenti sulla disponibilità di Saakashvili ad osservare i principi della società aperta (cioè fungere da conduttore della politica degli Stati Uniti).
Secondo l'opinione di Soros, inoltre l'assistenza diretta in Russia è impossibile, ma proietta ciò che vede come il progresso nella cooperazione internazionale, particolarmente con la Cina, e la Russia sceglierà solo di rimanere fuori dal processo. "Il rafforzamento ed il supporto delle Repubbliche post-Soviet serviranno a entrambe le operazioni della strategia doppia dell'UE riguardo alla Russia", dice Soros.
Le idee di Soros riflettono il pensiero tradizionale del partito democratico degli Stati Uniti. Per lui, impiantare globalmente i valori degli Stati Uniti, presentati come universali, è un fine in sé. Sappiamo, dalla storia recente, che tale attività missionaria degli Stati Uniti può costituire un pericolo più grave, per i paesi CSI e per il mondo, che non l'unilateralismo smussato di G. Bush. Fu il Presidente degli Stati Uniti,il democratico B. Clinton che ha scatenato una barbara aggressione contro la Jugoslavia sotto la bandiera missionaria degli Stati Uniti.
Gli analisti degli Stati Uniti hanno coniato il termine "nuova unilateralità" per descrivere la posizione della politica estera dei neocon repubblicani, che essenzialmente denota l'inseguimento da parte degli Stati Uniti, esclusivamente dei propri obiettivi imperialisti. Da qui la spiegazione della tendenza della precedente Amministrazione degli Stati Uniti ad ignorare le alleanze permanenti ed a sostituirle con le coalizioni dei volenterosi, cosa che è stata assai criticata dai democratici e da Soros in particolare.
L'approccio secondo cui le nazioni venivano considerate non in base alla loro aderenza ai valori euroatlantici ma sulla loro prontezza a fungere da alleati degli Stati Uniti nella lotta antiterrorista (o, potenzialmente, contro un certo altro fantasma) è considerare dai democratici come ideologicamente impossibilitato a estendersi in misura sufficiente.
Nell'ambito dell'amministrazione democratica degli Stati Uniti, è probabile si ritorni al ricorso alla NATO negli affari della sicurezza collettiva e si inizi a ristabilire l'influenza degli alleati nella NATO e dell'alleanza complessivamente. I nuovi membri della NATO, probabilmente, avranno ruoli secondari nell'esecuzione della politica estera di Washington. Le Repubbliche post-Sovietiche già hanno sentito l'escalation della pressione "morbida" degli Stati Uniti, che punta a coinvolgerli nell'isolamento della Russia, inizialmente a livello ideologico ed in avvenire in politica ed economia.
I metodi di Washington includono la manipolazione dell'opinione pubblica e l'acquisto della lealtà delle classi dirigenti delle Repubbliche. L'analisi della visione che hanno i consulenti in materia di Soros e Obama, come lo Z. Brzezinski, rivela i particolari della strategia degli Stati Uniti nello spazio post-Sovietico e nei rapporti con la Russia in particolare. Essenzialmente si tratta di prevenire una pressione diretta ma all'isolamento della Russia ed a cacciarla da tutti i programmi più significativi nella sfera dell'energia e dell'economia generalmente, così come l'agricoltura, la sicurezza, ecc. Gli sforzi collettivi della comunità euroatlantica per essere reintegrati nell'ambito del patronato degli Stati Uniti, piuttosto che i diversi sforzi fatti dagli Stati Uniti di concerto con le allentate coalizioni dei volenterosi - come sotto l'ex Presidente degli Stati Uniti G. Bush - dovrebbero condurre alla materializzazione del programma.
L'amministrazione Obama progetta di comportarsi in due modi in Eurasia. Uno è di portare i paesi CIS nell'orbita della politica anti-Russa. L'altra è di promuovere un consenso fra la vecchia e nuova Europa allo scopo di formulare una politica comune europea sull'energia. Il contributo finanziario ai paesi CIS vicini alla Russia, sarà offerto sotto la bandiera della promozione dei principi della società aperta. Tradotto dalla neolingua di Soros, ciò significa appoggio a coloro che si considerano alleati degli Stati Uniti nella lotta contro la Russia. Gli Stati Uniti si concentreranno sull'avanzamento dei propri interessi in Georgia ed in Ucraina, propagando il sistema dei valori degli Stati Uniti tra le popolazioni dei paesi ed impiegando su di loro una pressione camuffata (principalmente comprando le classi politiche locali).
Per Soros e Brzezinski è logico che gli interessi degli Stati Uniti siano assicurati al meglio nei paesi in cui le elite locali, se non l'intera popolazione, si sono convertiti al sistema di valori impiantato dagli Stati Uniti e li servono apertamente - o perché sono pagate per agire in tal modo. La fiducia della nuova amministrazione statunitense sull'attività euroatlantica collettiva, si manifesta nella raccomandazione di Soros riguardo alla strategia dell'energia. L'istituzione di un gestore con poteri superiori a quelli cittadini, è stata a lungo un sogno di alcuni regimi anti-Russi pigmei in Europa orientale. La disposizione permetterebbe di ostacolare la politica pragmatica della vecchia Europa che cerca di cooperare con la Russia sulle questioni dell'energia. La circostanza chiave è che le priorità dei regimi pigmei - in Polonia, Estonia, Lettonia, Lituania e, dal 2005, in Ucraina - non sono economiche ma geopolitiche. È la loro importante posizione geopolitica fra la Russia e la vecchia Europa che stanno vendendo con ampio successo a Washington.
In opposizione, la strategia della vecchia Europa è guidata da considerazioni economiche e da una posizione nella politica estera che è relativamente autonoma dagli Stati Uniti.
Soros preferisce ignorare il fatto che Berlino, Parigi e Roma possano essere poco disposte a sottomettere il loro diritto a progettare la loro politica energetica a un gestore sovranazionale (probabilmente installato dagli USA).
L'assenza di una politica energetica pan-europea non è spiegata dai giochi di Mosca con i paesi europei fuori dal contesto dell'UE, ma dalle divergenze fondamentali fra la vecchia e nuova Europa nei rapporti con la Russia, che a partire da oggi rendono una strategia comune dell'UE impossibile. L'Ucraina s'è data un ruolo quasi centrale nei programmi dell'amministrazione Obama per isolare la Russia. Probabilmente, gli Stati Uniti spingeranno l'Ukraine ad aderire in modo informale e non previsto alla NATO ed interagirà con Kyiv come membro de facto della NATO.
L'attenzione speciale sarà data per sviluppare l'influenza ideologica degli Stati Uniti in Ucraina. Gli Stati Uniti, in particolare, amplificheranno il supporto delle varie ONG nel paese. Non essendo l'Ucraina del presidente Yushchenko un paese della NATO, tuttavia assume impegni normali per i membri del blocco. La ricollocazione di parte delle forze armate dell'Ukraina al confine russo, accennato nel dicembre 2008 dal capo di stato maggiore dell'Ukraina S. Kirichenko, significa in effetti la partecipazione del paese al rafforzamento del perimetro della NATO.
L'accordo Ucraina-NATO per il transito militare attraverso l'Ucraina, la cui firma, da parte del ministro della difesa Yekhanurov, autorizzato dal presidente Jushchenko, non è null'altro che un passo verso la piena adesione alla NATO. Un esempio recente è la ratifica, il 18 febbraio, del Parlamento ucraino dei protocolli supplementari al memorandum d'intesa firmato dal governo ucraino e dalla NATO.
Il memorandum dice che un centro d'informazioni e documentazione della NATO sarà istituito in Ucraina ed ufficiali di collegamento della NATO saranno spediti nel paese. I protocolli supplementari assegnano privilegi diplomatici agli ufficiali del centro ed ai famigliari.
Se l'Ucraina continua ad ottemperare rigorosamente agli obblighi imposti normalmente ai paesi NATO, mentre rimane fuori dall'alleanza, gli alleati europei degli Stati Uniti possono essere convinti che l'Ucraina dovrebbe essere ammessa senza le procedure normalmente richieste per legittimare la situazione attuale. Di conseguenza dovremmo invitare gli Stati Uniti a divenire sempre più attivi nel ruolo di arbitro nelle dispute fra la vecchia e nuova Europa, ed i paesi europei della NATO saranno sempre più coinvolti nel piano per inserire l'Ucraina nell'alleanza.
In queste circostanze è estremamente importante, per il popolo dell'Ucraina, spodestare i politici che hanno trasformato il suo paese in uno strumento di avanzata degli interessi degli Stati Uniti in Eurasia, al costo del confronto con la Russia, che dell'Ukraina è il principale e la maggior alleato naturale.


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La quadratura del cerchio

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Sunday, 1 March, 2009

in Economia & Mercato, Italia

Enel ha necessità di procedere ad un aumento di capitale (e/o a dismissioni di asset) stimato tra i 5 e i 7 miliardi di euro per evitare che le agenzie di rating procedano ad un declassamento del suo debito, che è significativamente aumentato dopo l'acquisizione di Endesa. L'"ultimatum" scade il 12 marzo, e i vertici di Enel devono confrontarsi con le ristrettezze finanziarie del Tesoro, che non pare avere soldi per sottoscrivere pro-rata l'aumento mettendo sul piatto tra 1 e 1,4 miliardi di euro per mantenere invariata la propria quota di possesso azionario, oggi al 30 per cento.

Di pressoché certo c'è che Tremonti si inventerà qualcuna della sue soluzioni creative: si parla in queste ore di far sottoscrivere l'aumento di capitale alla SACE, la finanziaria pubblica che assicura i crediti all'export e che dispone di liquidità in eccesso, ma per fare ciò occorrerebbe una modifica statutaria. In alternativa, SACE potrebbe girare un maxi-dividendo al Tesoro, che in tal modo avrebbe risorse per sottoscrivere l'aumento di capitale di Enel. Certo, ci sarebbero assai meno problemi se Fulvio Conti, CEO di Enel, potesse tagliare lo sproporzionato dividendo che il titolo attualmente paga, anche a causa degli spericolati "consigli per gli acquisti" del premier, mesi addietro, basati su un dividend yield del tutto disconnesso dalla realtà. Ma se la vita fosse così semplice, saremmo tutti terribilmente annoiati.

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Europe needs new Energy Charter – Medvedev

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Russia Today    01 marzo 2009
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Europe needs a new Energy Charter focused not only on consumers but also on producers and transit countries as well, says Dmitry Medvedev in his interview with Spanish journalists from channel TVE and newspaper El Pais.

The Spanish journalists interviewing Medvedev are: Chief Correspondent of the Moscow bureau of public service channel Television Espanola (TVE) Jose-Carlos Gallardo-Korulon; Director of the international editorial staff of 'El Pais' Luis Prados-De-Escosura; and Moscow Correspondent for 'El Pais' Maria-Pilar Bonet-Cardona

Q: Mr. Medvedev, His Majesty King Juan Carlos was the first one to come here in 2008 to congratulate you here in Moscow as Russia's new president, and that visit was interpreted as a demonstration of good relations between our two countries. At what stage, in your opinion, are these relations today?

A: Thank you. I think they are at an excellent stage, at the stage when we can find a solution to almost any problem we can discuss it with our Spanish counterparts. We find solutions to the most difficult problems, the most difficult issues that our countries are facing – both in the bilateral and multilateral format, including the issues of European security and overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis.

That's why it is with much optimism and great pleasure that I am looking forward to my visit to Spain. Our people very much appreciate the attitude King Juan Carlos I of Spain has towards our country, and respect him as a well-known and experienced statesman and a leader of a friendly nation. We know that both he and Queen Sofía are very interested in Russian culture and history, as evidenced by many examples. That is why my very first contact with His Majesty, which took place last year – and indeed, this was almost immediately after I came into office – gave me an impression that we would be able to find common language on many diverse issues.

His Majesty and I even attended a photography exhibition together. I knew he was interested in this subject, and I was also somewhat interested, and we were able not only to discuss bilateral relations, but also to talk about the world of photography, about art, as well. This paves the way for discussing many different issues: both at the head-of-state level and at the government level. In short, at almost any level we have a very good foundation for advancing our relations further.

And I believe this is particularly valuable today, when the entire world faces financial difficulties, when some old mechanisms no longer work, when we all face the problem of shortage of finances for implementing various major projects, when we have to deal with urgent social problems, when some people cannot find a job, and their number is growing, when we have to respond to global challenges, including those that have to do with the existing system of financial ties, the financial architecture.

Very soon there will be a meeting in London, which should provide conditions for addressing these major problems – speaking of which, we very much expect to mutually coordinate our efforts with our Spanish partners – let alone the problems which are traditional for our countries: those of maintaining European security. The dialogue with respect to this subject is a multilateral one.

I have presented my views on many occasions, and I think we will visit this subject again with you today. I don't think that those institutions which provide security in Europe today are sufficient. We need to create the framework for a new security system which will include, with all due respect, not only those blocs that exist today, but also non-bloc entities. Of course, it's good that we have some forums today where we can meet and discuss these things, but this does not mean that this situation is set in stone.

The reason I mention this is because with our Spanish partners we don't have any difficulty finding common solutions to the most challenging problems of today. That's why it is with great joy and optimism that I am looking forward to the meeting I'll have in Spain, to the state visit, which, by the way, will include the signing of the Declaration of Strategic Cooperation between our countries.

Q: Mr. President, in 2008 you proposed to design an international treaty to create a new security architecture. I'd like to ask: does Mikhail Gorbachev's idea about setting up a common European home from Vancouver to Vladivostok have anything to do with it? And what do you think about the US project to deploy a missile defense system in Europe?

A: Usually, every new idea only seems to be new. In reality, there is always some background. In fact, various people have been speaking about a common European home from the Atlantic to the Urals long before Mikhail Gorbachev. Charles de Gaulle spoke about this. I am sure that somebody spoke about this too even before Charles de Gaulle. This indicates that good ideas always find favour with politicians, who then present them.

My proposal, of course, is a modified version of what has been proposed earlier, but what I did is I adopted it to contemporary conditions. Today, the confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact is over. We no longer have a situation where two blocs co-exist in Europe. There is no iron curtain any more. The Cold War, thank God, is over. That's why the idea cannot remain unchanged. But I think it is still relevant, because the existing security system in Europe is less than perfect, as I have just said. The reason I say it is less than perfect is because there are countries which, strictly speaking, do not belong to any bloc or alliance, and their security is not ensured at the bloc level. This will always create tension. This will always give them an impression that they don't get absolutely fair treatment and will simply generate problems in dealing with other countries.

I think that the way to solve this problem is to create an organization which would unite all European countries regardless of which organizations they are part of – be it NATO, the CIS (the Commonwealth of Independent States), the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or the European Union. All these organizations are like sets in maths, and none of these sets fully covers any of the other sets. This means that it is necessary to have a universal field.

You could object that there is the OSCE. The problem with the OSCE is that in the last few years it has failed to realize its potential. To my mind, the OSCE is less effective today than it was during the Cold War, back at the time when it was not called an Organization, but when it was the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe and was accompanied by what is known as the Helsinki Accords. Thus, we are not opposed to discussing these issues in the OSCE format, but it seems to me that the framework of the new system should be somewhat different.

What can we do here? We could hold a summit in the OSCE format. I've already said this. I gather some of our partners in Europe, including our partners in Spain, like the idea. Some of our partners in Europe say they think it is unnecessary. Alright, let's think what other mechanisms we could use. We could consider creating a forum of some sort where European countries that are not part of the EU could discuss things with the EU. This is another option.
We should just be creative and find an idea that will gather us together. I am absolutely confident that this is necessary, and, by the way, a number of dramatic events, including those that happened in 2008, have demonstrated how fragile peace is. I mean, among other things, what happened in August – the crisis in the Caucasus, Georgia's aggression against little entities that used to be its constituents. Therefore, this problem is very, very urgent.

As for the missile defense project, my position is different. I am of the opinion that this idea in its original format is no longer relevant. Moreover, we are frustrated with it. We have an impression that this project is directed against Russia – at least in a roundabout way, if not directly. Naturally, Russia does not like this. This is totally obvious.

So, what can we do here? Nobody says threats do not exist – including threats that may involve acts of nuclear terrorism, threats from countries with unstable regimes. Let us address such threats together, not isolating each other from these processes. We have proposed this more than once to others, including our American partners. The position of the previous administration was very simple and, if you please, very dumb: "we are going to do this because that's what we have decided to do." I expect the new United States administration to take a more creative and more cooperative approach to this issue. And we do receive messages from our American counterparts to this effect. I expect these messages to evolve into concrete proposals. I hope that during my first meeting with the US president Barack Obama we are able to discuss this issue as well. This problem is extremely urgent for Europe.

Q: Could we go back to bilateral relations? The trade turnover has exceeded two billion euros, and we can do even better than that. We are very much interested in developing our cooperation. Last autumn, I think Lukoil wanted to buy into Repsol and some sectors in Spain, and we know what their response was. I'd like to ask if you think they don't trust Russian partners enough and if there are stereotypes, and what should be the foundation for our relations.

A: Thank you. First of all, I'd like to say that the trade turnover we have, good as it is, is too low. This is true even under current crisis conditions. I believe countries with such potential as Russia and Spain definitely must have a much higher turnover. There are countries comparable with Spain in terms of their economic potential with which our turnover is measured in tens of billions of either dollars or euros. I think we are well able to bring our trade turnover up to a comparable level.

As for investment, this is always a two-way street. It is impossible to welcome investments, and at the same time pursue a different policy with respect to other economic players. This always causes tensions.

We are interested in Spanish investments coming to Russia. And, in turn, we want Russian companies to enter the Spanish market and invest their funds in various sectors there.
Furthermore, this may be a banality, but it is obvious that the more our countries invest in each other, the higher the security level in Europe will be, because governments may change, leaders may come and go, but if countries have a common business, they will never have a reason for conflicts – at least for serious conflicts. They will always be forced to talk and reach an agreement. Conversely, if there is no trade as the foundation, no joint projects, that's when a lot of problems emerge.

As for the situation with Lukoil and the bid I think it made for Repsol shares, naturally, I won't comment on the situation in detail, because at any rate this matter is between two private companies. Lukoil is a private company, and the Russian government has nothing to do with it; on the contrary, to a large degree it is controlled by foreign shareholders.

Anyway, I was told this was an interesting offer worth considering and maybe allowing one company to buy into another one. As far as I know, the stake in question was rather small; it was even less than what they call a blocking stake. In other words, such a stake does not seriously affect the decision-making process in a company; it only gives one an opportunity to enter a market and, so to say, demonstrate one's capabilities, have a share in the capital stock, and so on.

From what I have heard from various sources, including our Spanish partners and our Spanish friends, this investment project was met with mixed reactions. Some like it, while others follow the logic and the stereotype of "Look, now even here the Russians are coming!" – like this threatens the country's independence and so forth. I think such logic is harmful or foolish, whatever you prefer, because in this case we just say there are good investments and bad investments, good investors and bad investors. And this means we are building new Berlin walls; we are building economic walls. This even contradicts the idea of one Europe.

I don't know what the outcome of this particular investment project will be. I think the two companies are still negotiating. I repeat, we are interested in being represented in the Spanish market. Spanish investors are interested in working in Russia. As for this particular deal, there is only one thing I can say: generally speaking, I believe countries like the Russian Federation and Spain must have their own energy cooperation track, their own energy cooperation benchmarks, because these are large countries which have energy potential of their own, which have their interests, and surely we should be able to find some energy projects which will be interesting to our countries, and this sphere is no exception.

Q: The US has just lost the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan, a key base for supplying NATO forces in their war on terror, and on Islamic terrorism in Afghanistan. Can Russia do something to compensate for this loss? And does it want to do it?

A: My answer to your question will come in two parts. The first part will be very short. The decision to shut down the Manas airbase in Kyrgyzstan is a sovereign decision of the Kyrgyz leadership. They have explained the reasons why they made this decision. As far as I know, they made it largely because the initial agreement to set up a base was concluded for two years. The base was there eight years. Apparently, this was not what they agreed to. But in any case, it is up to them, and they made this decision. It should be respected as any other decision made by a sovereign state in keeping with applicable laws.

Now, as far as our work in Afghanistan is concerned, I would like to say that we are not interested in stopping this work. On the contrary, we would like to step up these efforts, because we see how dangerous radical groups in Afghanistan, Pakistan and some other countries are. These groups pose a threat to whole of mankind and – to a large degree, or even primarily-to their own people.

Thus, we are ready to step up this cooperation in every aspect, including our cooperation with the United States. We have made some offers to the United States concerning the transit of non-military cargo. We have similar agreements with France and Germany. We have discussed these issues with Spain as well.

So, we think this work should go on, and I think we have a very good foundation for reaching an agreement here. I gather that the new US president has named this problem as one of the key priorities in US foreign policy. We share this view. Moreover, we are ready to take part in discussing Afghanistan's domestic problems, and these discussions may include influential international organizations. Recently we had a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and we agreed to call a conference on this subject. I think very soon, sometime this year, we may have a conference on Afghanistan under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. The reason we are using the SCO format in this case is because most of the member-states border Afghanistan, and naturally they are interested in the settlement process in this country making as much progress as possible. Also, they want to see a feasible foundation for a normal political system in Afghanistan, one that the people of the country will trust, one that will be efficient and that won't be weak and imposed from outside.

In short, we want to see a civilized and democratic state in Afghanistan.

Q: There was another gas war between Ukraine and Russia in January, right? And as Western observers say, Russia lost a lot of money. You yourself wrote about it, Gazprom did. Russia also lost some trust and damaged its reputation. I know for sure, because I heard it myself, even thought I can't quote, because this was not out in the open, that high standing Russian officials were against this measure – to turn off the tap delivering gas to Ukraine. Next time when this problem occurs, what will you do in January, when you try to agree on the price again? Will you turn off the tap again or will you appeal to the International Court, the Arbitration Court of Stockholm, which deals with such cases? As a lawyer you know it very well.

A: First of all, we didn't turn off the tap. We just found ourselves in a situation where Ukraine didn't sign an agreement with us. We did not have any legal basis for continuing with the gas deliveries. That's why we made these difficult decisions, we didn't want to make them, and we would like to avoid them in the future. We had a long and difficult process of discussion with our Ukrainian partners, and in the end we came to an agreement which we signed on January 19. According to that agreement, gas is delivered to Ukraine now at market prices, and our Ukrainian partners are obligated to make timely payments. The next payment is around 400 million dollars, if I am not mistaken, and it needs to be made soon. If they fail to pay, the agreement's provisions become active – Ukraine will have to switch to the pre-payment system for further deliveries. So at this point we do this on credit, so we trust them, but operate with market prices, so then it would be a pre-payment system. These will be the natural consequences if they don't pay on time. Of course, we would not want to go back to the old scenario. It is definitely not our choice, but I can honestly tell you – if they refuse to pay, we will have to do something about it. Not too long ago my colleague Mr. Barroso came with many European commissioners. I told him a simple thing – if we want to secure everyone: European consumers and create a normal sense of co-operation in general, secure it – then let's help the Ukrainians. They are really in a difficult situation. Some analysts say the economic situation in Ukraine is close to economic collapse. If we sense that they are not able to pay, then let's create a financial pool and help them with money. I think this is a solution that will help everyone. There are a number of European financial institutions. We are ready to take part in that ourselves. We are ready to bring in some of our money in order to provide for a normal situation with deliveries. But let's do it in a civilized way. We proposed a consortium idea, which would buy some gas. The idea is not dead. But we have not reached the deadline yet, and I think our Ukrainian partners are capable of settling all these issues. As far as the specific Russian officials that you talked about, the ones who are against this strategy, tell me, and I will fire them.

Q: I can't tell you, because I won't break the off-the-record rule. This was a public post in a closed forum.

A: I see.

Q: Yes.

A: I see.

Q: In Barcelona. The city of Barcelona.

A: I understand.

Q: The recent gas crisis, the gas crisis as well as the war with Georgia and the situation with human rights in Russia, these are the issues that have always threatened and are still threatening Russia's talks with the EU about the new partnership agreement. How do you view your relations with the European Union, if you say that the EU is a strategic partner that Russia needs?


A: You know I think that these were difficult events, one of them is simply dramatic – the Caucasus crisis in August, our neighbour's aggression – and the gas problem, of course they create certain tension, and tension in Europe. We cannot deny that. But at the same time we come from the point that all European countries are interested in good relations with the Russian Federation, as well as that the Russian Federation is interested in good partnership relations with the European Union and specific countries in Europe. These relations are not opportunistic and should not depend on any political events. And we definitely should not look at the signing of the partnership agreement with Europe, with the European Union as some kind of prize that Russia gets for its good behavior, all parties are interested in such an agreement. We have an agreement now. And even though it has expired, in general it is still applied. So there is definitely a need for a new agreement. And in my opinion it should be a general document, accompanied by a number of various agreements on different issues. But I will say again, it is not a way of stimulating Russia. It is a document that we all need. This should be our assumption. And this document should serve as a basis for many other agreements.

We have mentioned the gas crisis several times today. As a lawyer, I don't have any legal illusions, nevertheless, I think that a there should be a solid legal basis for settling such issues. What do we have now in this area for example? We have an agreement with our Ukrainian friends, and the Ukrainian partners break it from time to time. And there is the Energy Charter, ratified by a number of countries, and signed, but not ratified by some, like the Russian Federation for example, some countries didn't sign it at all. It means that the issue has not been shaped legally. In relation to that, I have come up with an idea, which I first voiced at the Moscow summit during this gas conflict – let's draw up a new Energy Charter or a new version of the Energy Charter. But what should it be like? It should not benefit just the consumers. Yes, a consumer is a vulnerable party. But sometimes we need to think about the producers as well, and the transit countries. Otherwise we cannot come to an agreement. But the Charter that we have today mostly considers the consumer. I gave an order, and our government along with our largest companies are working on a proposal for the new Energy Charter. As I promised, I will definitely bring it and give it to partners probably in London, maybe in Italy, but hopefully in London, and I think it will be Russia's contribution, Russia's additional contribution to European energy security.

Q: We have talked about these two issues – gas conflict and the war with Georgia. Not the human rights issue. I think certain elements of this issue could be questioned. There have been concerns, concerns about these issues.

A: Who voiced these concerns and about what events? Because if you mean specific issues, let's talk about them.

Q: I am talking about the international community, and also the government, police. As far as particular situations. There are several specific examples: Anna Politkovskaya's case, for example.


A: You are talking about problems inside the country, in Russia? Because there are plenty of such cases in Europe. But you are talking about Russian problems. I see. Well, you know…

Q: Yes, yes.

A: Well, this is the area in which every country will find something they don't like about their partners. I don't support the idea of turning this discussion into an argument, attempts to find faults of our European partners, for example, even though in every country you can find something to hold against it and discuss how well they follow the basics of human rights, and this includes the most developed both socially and economically countries. We are not a perfect state. We also have many different problems, including those in the human rights area. The most important thing is not to pretend that they don't exist, but to stay consistent in fighting such cases. I think that Russia has gone a long way in the past 18 years, because even several decades ago this issue would have been considered nonsense. What human rights could you talk about in the Soviet Union? Well, actually, Spain remembers a similar time quite well. And it was also not too long ago. But now the situation is different.

We have a Constitution that functions fairly well, basic human and civil rights and freedoms are guaranteed by it. And as a lawyer, not as a head of a state, I am pretty impressed with what has been done in recent years. But it does not mean that there are no problems. I think that there are enough problems. But unfortunately we still fail at some basic rights. I am talking about protection of people from criminal offences, from invasions into their private life, protection of property.
Unfortunately, in this respect things are not good traditionally, and the atmosphere in general is very difficult crime wise. Social institutions are not efficient, and actions of the state, including police, raise many questions. Just yesterday I was at the Prosecutor General Board meeting, where we talked about crime. But I can honestly say to all our Spanish friends, last year we had over 2000 cases of homicide, which have not been solved. The statistic is very sad. We need to do everything to make sure that such crimes are at least solved. And on the large scale – to prevent these crimes, even though it is hard, especially during the crisis, problems become bigger. It is a topic for a separate talk. The most important thing is not to turn a blind eye to the problem. Yesterday we also discussed the issue of jury, jury in court. It is a new establishment, or rather a well forgotten old establishment. It used to exist in the Russian Empire, though in a somewhat different form. Not too long ago, during the hearing on the Politkovskaya case, the jury pronounced the defenders not guilty.

As the head of the state, I will not evaluate the court's decision, because it is the court, but I can tell you one thing, which I also told the Prosecutor General Board yesterday. I don't know if you heard or not. I said that our police, investigators need to learn how to work in a system that includes the jury institution. It is a rather complicated process. Just remember movies focusing on this problem. It is a separate topic. Evidentiary support has to be very convincing, well prepared. The State Prosecutor's actions in the process must be outstanding and also convincing. Therefore it's a primary objective for the state to improve such institutions, but civil society should not stay on the sidelines either, because all these problems are quite obvious, and I think that all non-governmental structures should help the state in this area. They should reveal the most difficult cases, propose legislative measures that could be taken. In this sense we have a constructive dialogue with a number of non-governmental organizations. We are in constant talks, at times heated discussions. I meet with them myself. By the way, one such meeting is planned for the near future. I am sure we will hear some things that are very unpleasant for the state. The most important thing is to be open, not to cover our ears, but to hear them out and try to react. In this case we will have a modern developed society. That's it.

Q: Do you think that the depth of the economic crisis in the world and the depth of the crisis in Russia and other countries will put at jeopardy the social agreement which was active during Vladimir Putin's presidency? In recent years the country has been restored, your political influence and reputation have been improving, on the one hand. On the other hand, the living standards have been getting higher. But could the fact that oil prices have gone down destabilize this social agreement, the social pact?

A: You know, of course, any crisis always created problems for the state, creates problems for regular people and naturally created tension in society. And if we say otherwise, we would be telling lies. People's mood does not change for the best in a crisis, and of course I understand them. But to say that these changes could dramatically alter the situation in the country – I think it is impossible for several reasons. First, today's Russia, the economic system of Russia, the social system of Russia today, is quite different from the system that we had 10-15 years ago. 15 years ago Russia was weak economically. It could not compete with the leading countries. A significant part of its economy was lost. In recent years we were able to change this situation. Therefore the current economic crisis will not hit social stability that hard, in my opinion. But of course, we need to make sure that living standards in our country, the quality of life of our average people stays on a normal level, that the quality of life would not be lower than a certain mark. In any case, we should not let the living standards in the country go back to what they were back in the 90s, when a significant part of our population was simply very poor. Now the situation is significantly better. And this is the main objective of the state, the main objective of the government. All our major decisions are about it, even when we accept a new budget and have to make cuts, as they say now – certain parts of the budget, mostly investment projects, we are trying to avoid changing social standards. So this social pact that you are talking about, meaning normal understanding between the power on one side and citizens on the other, this is a great achievement of the previous period and we have to do everything in order to maintain social peace and wellbeing in the country. I think we have everything we need for that.

Q: Is it true that Russia has changed drastically in the last 15 years? But there is one subject that you find very significant. I am talking about corruption, which existed then and exists still. Yesterday I was at a meeting of Russian businessmen, politicians and analysts. And they said that the tax service has some kind of plan, I will not quote the specific accusations. But it is obviously a problem, and this is a growing problem, and you know it, you worked on a law draft, right? What makes you think that this draft will be better than many other previous drafts? There have been many commissions and committees that fought against corruption. Why now, in the current crisis, you can if not win then move forward in overcoming this evil, which is not only limited to Russia, of course, everyone knows that.


A: There are two possible patterns in this situation. We could relax and admit our defeat, say – you know, we have been fighting this for centuries in Russia and we will never prevail. Or we could try to do something. I chose the latter. And when I was making this decision to work on fighting corruption, I heard different things. Some said – why are you doing this, you will not be able to achieve anything in a year, in two years, people will still take bribes, there will still be problems, illegal deals of all sorts. And that is true. And it probably will be this way. But when we act, do something, we let society know that we are working on this anyway, that we are still trying to narrow down this space, that we still grab someone by the hand, we still show that in a number of cases there will be a punishment, sooner or later people will have to answer for what they did. And this creates a slightly different atmosphere, even now we are talking that there is a way on corruption, and everybody says – yes, it is happening, but not very enthusiastically, there are problems here and there. But it would have been worse if nothing happened at all.

Therefore I think that society has to always answer for these things. And the state has to make a decision. As far as the laws go, I don't have any illusions here either. The legislative documents that we accepted, will only work to a certain extent, but still I can honestly tell you that the laws that we have been waiting for in the past 10-12 years, because the very concept of corruption has not been present in the legislation until recently, and only the latest laws created the legal basis for it. These laws introduced a number of new institutions, very peculiar and previously unfamiliar to our country. So now we press corruption charges not just against officials, but also companies – legal entities, if there is proof. We encourage state employees to behave properly, declare all their income, in order to prevent the so called conflict of interests. And if a state employee has such a conflict, this employee must state this publicly and openly, then he gets a chance to settle this conflict legally. If he doesn't do it, he commits an act of corruption. So this is an internal motivation for them not to do such things. There are many other important norms, including, actually, the issue of declaring income by the official's family members. We talked about it a lot, but this didn't take place. Next year will be the first year for the state employees' family members to declare their incomes. It is also very important. Most likely, it won't work in a number of cases. We can imagine a simple scenario when part of the income or some property will be made into names of some distant relatives, but at least this will not agree with the law. So I think that any actions that help prevent corruption, any specific rules in this area already have a good potential. It is like the state saying this is a priority.

Q: I see, but as far as the anti-crisis measures go, yesterday for example, the interest rate was announced at which banks got credit. But not too long ago I was in Nizhni Tagil, and they complain that the money doesn't reach them. The anti-crisis money.


A: But it's rather not the issue of corruption. Unfortunately, it's the issue of our economic situation, because differently from a number of European countries where there are signs of deflation, we have very high inflation, and despite the termination of several industries, the inflation rate is high, and because of this credit rate is even higher. And many enterprises just have no possibility of taking credit for which 18-20 per cent interest must be paid a year. But there are no such rates in Europe. And it's a big problem today. This is true. And here there's no unique recipe of what to do. In some cases we need to just compensate part of this credit rate, to subsidise it from the state. It's evident that we cannot do this for all enterprises. We can do this only for systemically important enterprises. By the way, you've mentioned a tax inspectorate, a plan for collecting taxes.

There's nothing rebellious in this. A tax inspectorate is to collect definite state profits if it does it in a legal way, it is to provide a profitable base for a state, if it doesn't break the rules. Of course, paying taxes is an unpleasant event for any entrepreneur.

Q: But they complained saying they would come to our country. They are small businessmen. Their turnover is 60 thousand but they say that their plan is one million, and they need to do whatever they can to produce this money. How should this be understood?


A: Well, it may be understood differently, but if this payment doesn't result from a law, there's only one answer – it's necessary to write an application to the Prosecutor's office, that's it. But if they do have to make these payments, then nothing else can be done.

Q: But you know how inspectors and auditors are used, don't you?

A: That's true. It happens sometimes. They really love to pay visits looking for some flaws. More often it arises from a desire to make a career, sometimes they want to get a bribe. Of course, we must do something about it.

Q: At that meeting where Mikhail Gorbachev was also present, it was said that at present there are people who under the cover of anti-crisis measures want to make money. It was the main topic of the meeting.


A: I believe this is a legitimate question and I, by the way, spoke about this in the course of three general meetings of law-enforcement agencies: at the general meeting of the Federal security service in our country, I spoke, at the general meeting of the Interior Ministry and yesterday I spoke in the General Prosecutor's office saying that those who try to make a profit out of crisis, are worthy of special responsibility for such doings, because this is as it were a crime, which today has heightened public danger not because they are directed against a concrete company, but they are, in fact, able to disorganize the work of a whole group of companies and hit the pockets of a vast number of people.

Q: You're a nice person as a personality

A: Thank you.

Q: Well, but why are you so afraid of people? Why is a radical opposition always banned from holding rallies? I don't speak about Communists who are allowed to organize rallies. Actually, rallies and protests are authorized upon request, while Kasparov and 'Another Russia's' requests are always denied. What do you fear?

A: You know, I certainly don't follow the activity of a radical opposition as much as you do. In my view, this is a small group of marginal politicians who are always present in any other country and is interested in boosting attention for itself. But judging from what I see, and I see much, sometimes I even visit the Internet sites of this radical opposition. Thus, whatever they want to yell, they do in different places. They take to the streets and shout that the President and Government must be dismissed. It means they make all the statements they want to make. So, I imagine nobody jumps down their throats. They say whatever they want. They speak in public. And they are not deprived of this opportunity. But if they don't speak on Red Square, forgive me, but I reckon it's not their place to be. They can request a rally wherever they like, including the Kremlin, but they should appear where it's allowed, where these kind of rallies are usually held.

Q: But in reality they were even detained in a restaurant.


A: Well, if there were some violations, they need to be investigated, but, to my mind, they say whatever they want with the straightforwardness of a working man.

Q: I'd like to ask a global question. We spoke about a global crisis. Russia offers new mechanisms of financial control. What can Russia contribute to the restructuring of the existing system?


A: I think it can contribute approximately the same as other countries contribute. The thing is that every state should put income into a global system of financial security. When there was a summit in Washington we managed to create a declaration which was supported by all participants, though they were all very different.

And this declaration contains the outlines of a new financial system. I believe we've now arrived at that point where we can create a new fairer financial system not because the former one was vicious, but it's just become out of date. And this crisis, when the bubbles, produced by some economies, first of all in America, popped, we had these problems as well, and the European states. This is a sign telling us that we need to create a new system. That's why we agreed that the result of the next round of our work in London should be a commission to develop international conventions on the topic, so we need to start work on the new Bretton Woods system, relatively speaking. That is why we are in this phase now. Not too long ago I had phone conversations with some of my European colleagues and the nearest future – today or tomorrow – I am planning to send them Russian proposals. Of course, I will send them to all the participants of the Washington summit, including the Prime Minister of Spain. And I hope that all these proposals, as well as other proposals, will be considered. We consider proposals from all our partners. In the end, our objective at the moment is to figure out what the new configuration will look like. And that is the most important thing. For now I can say that we I think we are moving very slowly. And the development of the crisis is not letting us act this way, because we have not hit the bottom yet, we are still falling and we don't know how far we still have to go. At this point it is very important to get some convention of agreed on pillars, which will allow us to pass this crisis in the best possible way. We could agree on a risk verification system, on how large corporations work, agree on insurance, on control over macro economic data in the leading European countries and countries of the world, in other countries. So, in other words, we would agree that this new system would become more modern. If we can do it, we will at least soften the consequences of the world financial crisis. I personally hope that our work in London will be solid and constructive.

Q: Clarification on Afghanistan, when you mentioned the SCO

A: SCO, right?

Q: Do you mean that the SCO will invite NATO to discuss Afghanistan, right?

A: I think the SCO could easily invite the leaders of the North Atlantic Alliance to discuss this issue. The SCO has its own format.

Q: Right.

A: Because the Shanghai Organization for Cooperation includes the states that basically border with Afghanistan. No one else suffers more than the SCO countries from the radical activity there. It is Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and the Russian Federation. This whole dirty flow of drugs and terrorists pours into our territory in the first place. That's why we ourselves will discuss these questions, but I think we will take into consideration the operation that is conducted there, that's why there will need to be representatives of other structures there.

Q: Many blame the US for the world financial crisis which started in the summer of last year, saying that the crisis shows that the system in the US doesn't work. Russia supports the multi-polar approach. Many Latin American countries support this idea. For example, the leaders of Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia who came to Russia not too long ago. Barack Obama has also expressed this idea. Do you think Russia and the US will find common ground on other ideas as well?


A: I certainly hope so. I really hope that this would be to the best interest of the United States of America, the Russian Federation and the whole world. It is no use blaming someone now, even though the roots of the crisis are well known. The most important thing now is to look into the future and create a system that will protect us from such crises, or at least try to soften the consequences. The world economy will always develop in cycles. No one will be able to change those laws. The question is – what will happen at climax points – the highest and lowest ones? It is one thing when it is something more or less predictable. And another thing when you have a crisis like the Great Depression in America, or the current crisis. We need to create a shield from that. We are ready for that.

Q: Don't you think you need more democracy for that, because…

A: Where?

Q: In Russia, because…

A: You think that in order to overcome the world financial crisis, we need to solve Russia's internal problems?

Q: No, I am just continuing his question, because we didn't quite understand the answer.


A: What in particular?

Q: Society denied some freedoms, civil freedoms in Putin's time and in your time as well. A party only needed 10,000 people before, now it is 50,000, and then when the number is lowered to 45,000 and 40,000 it is presented as democratization, but we have not even returned to the initial point, right? Are you going to solve this crisis with less democratization or more democratization?

A: I will tell you this. If we are talking about solving the crisis, I am not even sure that going through the crisis is in any way connected with the level of democracy. The problem is different. The problem is that normal economic mechanisms are absent, the ones that allow most of the countries to go through this crisis without losses. Of course, it is best if the state has all the democratic institutions, which allow it to make the right decisions and so forth. But if we are talking about overcoming the crisis, let's remember what was happening in the United States of America in the 30s, and in some other countries experiencing the crisis. I don't think these were the best democracies at the time. Quite the opposite actually. In a number of cases the state had to crack down on everyone in order to overcome the crisis. I am not saying we will do this in Russia. On the contrary. It is just that I am trying to say that overcoming the crisis and development of democratic institutions are different things. And we should not confuse them.

A: Thank you.

Source >  Russia Today | March 01

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Give to the rich to help the poor? An idea worthy of Bono

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Satire? No - a genius really has concocted a tax proposal to put our aid budget in the hands of the super-rich

On Tuesday night, 100 billionaires will gather at London's sumptuous Dorchester hotel, to watch Mr Ted Turner in conversation with Ms Carol Vorderman. Ms Joss Stone will sing, and some model or other will be in attendance. Can you guess the aim of this evening, which I trust you would cross continents to avoid in the infinitely unlikely event that you had been invited? No? Then allow me to assist. The aim is to make the government give tax breaks to the super-rich, in order to tempt them to give the same percentage of income to charity as the poorest 20% of people in this country already do.

Feel free to be taken unwell.

Initially I assumed the Fortune Forum, for so it is named, was an elaborate living satire, designed to highlight practically everything that is wrong with contemporary life. Alas, The Fortune Forum is all too real. It was dreamt up by an heiress called Renu Mehta, as a kind of vaguely benevolent mini-Davos. It is now in its third year, and has made several donations to the world's neediest people, including paying one Bill Clinton a rumoured $450,000 to address it.

But it is the Fortune Forum's latest scheme that really impresses. As the Guardian reported yesterday, Mehta enlisted the Nobel prize winning economist Sir James Mirrlees to come up with a plan to address the shaming statistic that Britain's richest 20% donate 0.8% of their income to charity, while the poorest 20% give 3%. He duly concocted a tax proposal. To wit: 50% of money donated towards the UN's millennium development goals through this scheme would be deducted from an individual or corporation's tax liability (which is of course only 40% or 28% respectively), with the government making up the other 50% from its aid budget. Naturally, the super-rich donors would get to decide on what projects their money was spent.

Let's see that in action, shall we? The UK's total overseas aid budget was £4.9bn in 2007-2008. Mehta suggests her scheme could persuade the super-rich to part with an extra £5bn a year, but of course the government is required to backmatch that notional sum, meaning that the entire aid budget would be swallowed up. What this means, effectively, is that control over the UK's aid budget would pass from the Department for International Development to a bunch of private individuals.

As the tax campaigner Richard Murphy points out, this is fundamentally undemocratic. Depressingly, Mirrlees and Mehta have already been granted two meetings with the Treasury, at which they insisted the scheme should be extended to those whose tax affairs are offshore, in effect allowing the use of UK taxpayers' money to be directed by tax exiles - and giving them tax relief for the privilege.

Did you ever hear anything so defeatist? Rather than make a concerted attempt to close down these offshore havens, the Treasury is now considering further enabling them with a cashback scheme because they are too tight to give the same percentage of their wealth to charity as someone in the lowest income bracket. Allowing this would be a monumental scandal.

One suspects Mirrlees is a Nobel economics laureate much in the same way that Henry Kissinger is a Nobel peace laureate. Another of his brainwaves is replacing corporation tax with a higher rate of VAT, a move which would shift the tax burden from the rich to the poor. Yet he will inevitably be lauded for this latest plan by those puffed-up fauxlanthropists who monopolise the aid debate.

And so to our old friend Bono, who this week announced he is displeased at being called a hypocrite for moving his tax affairs to the Netherlands, all the while lobbying the Irish government to increase its aid budget. As you may recall, the Tax Justice Network estimates that if tax was paid on the money the world's rich have protected in tax havens, it would raise enough to finance those millennium development goals five times over.

"I can understand how people outside the country wouldn't understand how Ireland got to its prosperity," Bono bleated to the Irish Times in the course of promoting his new album, "but everybody in Ireland knows that there are some very clever people in the government and in the revenue who created a financial architecture that prospered the entire nation - it was a way of attracting people to this country who wouldn't normally do business here. And the financial services brought billions of dollars every year directly to the exchequer. What's actually hypocritical is the idea that then you couldn't use a financial services centre in Holland."

Now that Ireland's economy has gone belly up, you mean? He's not the brightest, is he? At least he's only parlayed himself into the role of Africa's messiah.

For Mehta's part, she keeps waffling that "we have to achieve philanthropic parity". As I wrote here last week, philanthropy begins with paying tax, and given the super-rich's notorious capacity for weaselling out of it, the very last thing we should be slinging their way are further tax breaks, let alone control of aid budgets.

marina.hyde@guardian.co.uk




http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/28/tax-avoidance-aid


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Quali scenari per UBS?

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UBS potrebbe progressivamente scegliere di concentrarsi sulla gestione patrimoniale.
Didascalia: UBS potrebbe progressivamente scegliere di concentrarsi sulla gestione patrimoniale. (Reuters)

Salvata dall'intervento statale nell'autunno del 2008, la banca vacilla negli Stati Uniti. UBS sta andando verso il fallimento, la nazionalizzazione, uno smembramento oppure una fase di convalescenza?

Mentre Marcel Rohner è stato sostituito dal nuovo CEO Oswald Grübel, che ha guidato il Credit Suisse fino al 2007, all'orizzonte si delineano diversi possibili scenari relativi al futuro di UBS.

Swissinfo ha interpellato su questo tema Loïc Bhend, analista finanziario presso Bordier, e Jean-Pierre Danthine, direttore dello Swiss Finance Institute.

Lo scenario del fallimento

Secondo Loïc Bhend, si tratta di una prospettiva piuttosto improbabile tenendo conto della situazione attuale. Il fallimento di UBS potrebbe essere causato da perdite enormi nel suo settore «banca d'affari», accompagnate da una mancanza di capitale per coprire tali perdite e da un disimpegno da parte dello Stato.

Ciononostante, perdite di questa entità sono oggigiorno assai meno probabili rispetto al periodo 2007/2008, soprattutto dopo che UBS ha potuto cedere buona parte dei suoi attivi tossici grazie alla Banca nazionale svizzera (Bns) e alla Confederazione.

Loïc Bhend sottolinea che la banca ha già effettuato parecchie ricapitalizzazioni, beneficiando inoltre di un prestito convertibile da parte della Confederazione dell'ammontare di 6 miliardi di franchi, per trasferire gli attivi problematici nella società appositamente costituita. Di conseguenza, in un confronto internazionale, UBS ha un indice di capitalizzazione molto elevato.

Jean-Pierre Danthine ritiene che un forte peggioramento della congiuntura potrebbe comunque indebolire la banca e i suoi concorrenti, trasformando per esempio certi attivi in attivi tossici.

Dal canto suo, Loïc Bhend sostiene che il principale rischio di fallimento per UBS è legato a un eventuale crollo della fiducia dei clienti in Svizzera, che condurrebbe a un ritiro massiccio dei loro depositi. In tal caso, l'istituto sarebbe privato di una fonte di finanziamento essenziale. L'analista afferma comunque che questo scenario, pur non potendo essere escluso, appare «abbastanza irrealistico».

Jean-Pierre Danthine sostiene che UBS è in una situazione meno difficile rispetto a sei mesi fa: «L'intervento dello Stato e della Bns l'hanno rinforzata e hanno mostrato la determinazione delle autorità a non lasciar fallire un istituto di queste dimensioni».

Lo scenario del ritiro dagli Stati Uniti

Il governo ha giustificato il recente accordo tra UBS e le autorità americane con il rischio della revoca alla banca della licenza necessaria per operare oltre Oceano. Se tale autorizzazione fosse stata ritirata, UBS non sarebbe stata in grado di rifinanziare le proprie attività statunitensi. La Confederazione avrebbe potuto fungere da supporto, ma soltanto entro certi limiti. Come tutti gli istituti, ricorda Loïc Bhend, UBS necessita infatti di una licenza bancaria per potere avere accesso al rifinanziamento delle banche centrali e ai prestiti interbancari [liquidità a corto e medio termine].

L'analista sostiene che un ritiro dagli Stati Uniti non metterebbe necessariamente in pericolo il futuro di UBS, a condizione che tale ritiro sia progressivo ed esente da debiti non pagati o da un ritiro dell'autorizzazione. In ogni caso, un'eventuale revoca della licenza non entra in linea di conto nella questione dei 52'000 conti finiti nel mirino del fisco americano, poiché si tratta di un caso di natura civile e non penale.

Lo scenario della nazionalizzazione

La statalizzazione – temporanea – di UBS è un'evoluzione credibile, ma non a corto termine: è l'opinione di Loïc Bhend, che fa dipendere questa possibilità da perdite molto importanti o da una riserva coperta in modo insufficiente a livello di capitale. Secondo Bhend, tuttavia, «la banca non si trova in questa situazione».

Ciononostante, la caduta in borsa del titolo UBS rende più verosimile l'eventualità di una nazionalizzazione: gli attuali azionisti non possono infatti effettuare una ricapitalizzazione, e soltanto lo Stato può intervenire concretamente.

Loïc Bhend giudica la nazionalizzazione una soluzione interessante soltanto se applicata a una parte dell'attività di UBS. La presenza statale rassicurerebbe infatti una parte dei clienti svizzeri, in particolare le piccole-medie imprese e i commercianti al dettaglio. Tuttavia, secondo l'analista, l'influenza dello Stato sarebbe percepita negativamente dai clienti interessati alla gestione di capitali, interessati in particolare alla discrezione e alla confidenzialità.

In assenza di una giustificazione d'interesse generale [come per le banche inglesi, che in caso contrario fallirebbero], una nazionalizzazione politica sarebbe assimilabile a una «nazionalizzazione selvaggia a scapito degli azionisti esistenti, aggiunge Bhend.

«È una questione di cultura», afferma Jean-Pierre Danthine: «Fintanto che non sarà assolutamente necessario – e attualmente non vi è alcuna indicazione in tal senso – non è certamente in Svizzera che vi saranno le prime nazionalizzazioni».

Lo scenario dell'acquisto

Secondo Loïc Bhend, questo scenario è meno plausibile rispetto a quello di una nazionalizzazione, pur considerando il basso valore attuale dei titoli UBS. Un eventuale acquirente dovrebbe infatti obbligatoriamente assumere anche la società per smaltire i titoli tossici della banca. Senza questa clausola, ritiene Bhend, una banca come HSBC sarebbe forse già passata all'atto.

Anche un'unione con il Credit Suisse appare improbabile: insieme, i due colossi costituirebbero un rischio per l'economia elvetica. Inoltre, Oswald Grüblel ha subito precisato che non vi sono simili piani.

Lo scenario dello smembramento

Anche questa eventualità appare poco probabile agli occhi di Loïc Bhend. A suo parere, la sezione «business banking» svizzera si presterebbe bene a una nazionalizzazione o a una ripartizione tra le banche cantonali (o la futura banca postale, se otterrà la licenza); anche il settore «banca di gestione patrimoniale» avrebbe dei pretendenti. Ciononostante, nessuno sarebbe pronto a farsi avanti prima del vertice del G20 e del processo a UBS che si terrà in luglio negli Stati Uniti: i dubbi concernenti il futuro del segreto bancario sono troppo importanti.

Inoltre: cosa fare del settore «banca d'affari»? Secondo Bhend, «non si può semplicemente chiuderla, continuando a farne gravare i costi sui contribuenti, senza speranza di rifarsi».

Lo smantellamento non convince nemmeno Jean-Pierre Danthine: egli rileva infatti che i mercati sono in crisi e il valore di UBS sottostimato: la vendita avverrebbe a condizioni pessime. «Preferirei piuttosto una nazionalizzazione, che perlomeno consente di attendere».

Continuare sulla base attuale

La banca potrebbe continuare a operare nella sua forma attuale, ridimensionando drasticamente il settore «banca d'affari», sottolinea Loïc Bhend. A suo parere, UBS avrebbe un vantaggio, ossia il fatto di poter contare su uffici situati in tutto il mondo. Ciò le conferirebbe una posizione privilegiata per praticare la gestione patrimoniale nel paese di residenza per clienti non coperti dal segreto bancario.

In Svizzera, i clienti sono molto critici e l'impatto dei cambiamenti in corso sugli affari non è ancora noto. Il rischio di ridimensionamento è comunque reale: «In futuro, è possibile che UBS si concentri sulla gestione patrimoniale, diminuendo le proprie dimensioni per evitare di restare un colosso che in caso di difficoltà rischia di mettere a repentaglio l'intero sistema economico svizzero».

Gli analisti pronosticano un risultato positivo per UBS nel 2009, dell'ordine di 4,5 miliardi di franchi. La direzione prevede inoltre di ottenere un utile in tutti i settori della banca: «UBS sta meglio di quanto sembra», afferma Loïc Bhend.

Resta un problema, conclude Jean-Pierre Danthine. «Qual è il progetto attuale di UBS? I problemi con il fisco statunitense mostrano che una parte del suo modello bancario non era praticabile, addirittura dannoso (...). Ciò ha comportato rischi enormi per un marchio come UBS, fondamentale per il paese. Ora stanno pagando le conseguenze. È tutto finalmente terminato? Lo spero vivamente...».

swissinfo, Pierre-François Besson
(traduzione e adattamento: Andrea Clementi)



http://www.swissinfo.ch/ita/prima_pagina/Quali_scenari_per_UBS.html?siteSect=105&sid=10386388&cKey=1235915743000&ty=st


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TEMPO DI SOLIDARIETA': ECONOMIE SOLIDALI!

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Il mezzo può essere paragonato a un seme, il fine a un albero; e tra mezzo e fine vi è esattamente lo stesso inviolabile nesso che c'è tra seme e albero diceva Ghandi per me questo mezzo oggi è la solidarietà, economie equo solidali, sistemi economici che esaltano l'essenza dell'uomo!

Wikipedia ci dice che Solidarietà è un sostantivo che deriva dalla parola francese solidaire ed ha come suo significato principale quello etico-sociologico......ma guarda caso riguarda l'uomo sempre e comunque l'uomo. Solidarietà e fraternità, ecco l'arma per combattere questa recessione/depressione, ecco un mezzo potente per combattere ogni tipo di protezionismo, di egoismo che questa crisi potrà seminare nei campi della nostra vita.

E' facile essere solidali e aiutare il prossimo quando le cose vanno bene, quando noi stessi stiamo bene, navighiamo nel benessere, in fondo rinunciamo a poco, ma la vera solidarietà nasce nelle difficoltà, quando all'improvviso un uragano si abbatte nella tua vita, tra la tua comunità ed è solo allora che l'uomo scopre se stesso, la sua essenza, il suo istinto di sopravvivenza spesso lo porta a pensare a se stesso ma altrettanto spesso crea occasioni vere di comunità, di solidarietà, di fraternità.

Domande e fraternità

"Come posso capire da dove partono i fiumi? Chi può con sapienza calcolare le nubi?

Ha forse un padre la pioggia? Per quale via si espande la luce e dove porta il vento d'oriente?".

Se vivo di domande consumerò tutto il tempo  della mia vita

 a seminare vento e a raccogliere tempesta, a guardare le stelle a contarle e ricontarle.

Se i miei dubbi diventano fiducia, se accetterò l'incontro con l'amico,

 allora la mia vita incontrerà l'amore

e potrò asciugare le lacrime incoraggiare gli sfiduciati soccorrere i bisognosi.

Ernesto Oliviero ( Premio Nobel per la Pace fondatore del Sermig )

.......Se vivo di domande consumerò tutto il tempo  della mia vita  a seminare vento e a raccogliere tempesta, a guardare le stelle a contarle e ricontarle.......si spesso troppo spesso parliamo di sogni, la nostra società organizza dibattiti, forum, tavole rotonde per esprimere opinioni, un fiume di parole che resta tale, parole spesso scritte sulla sabbia del tempo che inesorabilmente passa .......

Il Papa recentemente ha sottolineato che anche se non si riesce mai a promuovere " una correzione radicale e totale " di questo sistema dobbiamo fare di tutto perchè vi siano correzioni sufficienti per far vivere e ostacolare l'affermarsi dell'egoismo, che si presenta sotto le forme della scienza, egoismo spesso essenza primordiale dell'uomo aggiungo io........." i grandi moralismi non aiutano se non sono sostanziati con la conoscenza della realtà che aiuta a capire cosa si può in concreto fare per cambiare la situazione "

Ebbene è assolutamente vero, basta moralismi, è il tempo di ricostruire, di progettare, di trovare insieme concretamente nuovi orizzonti, è il tempo della speranza, della solidarietà, della fraternità non intese come parole che riempiono di luce coloro che le pronunciano e coloro che le ascoltano, il tempo di sporcarsi le mani senza tante domande, di mettere a disposizione il proprio tempo " GRATUITAMENTE "ognuno nella sua comunità incominciando con un semplice sorriso, perdendo un po del nostro tempo passato a lasciar trascorrere il tempo, afferrando le occasioni per riempire la nostra vita, occasioni che nascono solo condividendo la comunità spesso con coloro che non hanno più alcuna speranza.

Nel concreto in questi due anni ho condiviso alcuni " Mondi Alternativi " molte altre occasioni esistono, nella vita sociale ma anche applicandole alla " macroeconomia ". E' ora di finirla di considerare l'economia come una scienza triste, è ora di incominciare ad occuparsi ognuno della propria economia, riempire questa che alcuni chiamano " scienza " di umanità, di attenzione ai bisogni dell'uomo eliminando il fine del profitto esponenziale, questa per incominciare è la mia ricetta, questa è la ricetta dei " Mondi Alternativi " questa è un'utopia solo per coloro che vivono contando le stelle e ricontandole solo per se stessi.

Concretamente per quanto riguarda il mondo del lavoro cosi duramente colpito da questa crisi, che in nome di un presunto rischio sistemico sta prosciugando qualunque risorsa a favore del sistema finanziario, oggi esistono i contratti di solidarietà forme reali di solidarietà tra lavoratori che rinunciano ad una parte del loro stipendio lavorando di meno per permettere una forma di fraternità che eviti ad alcuni colleghi la perdita del posto di lavoro. 

Lavorare di meno, guadagnando di meno per attendere insieme la ripresa economica, evitando quindi di fermare la produzione, strumenti che le imprese hanno a disposizione per combattere temporaneamente la crisi.

Il contratto di solidarietà può avere due forme: difensivo o espansivo.

  • Contratto Difensivo: è la forma più importante perché la riduzione d'orario è finalizzata ad evitare la riduzione di personale, quindi il licenziamento.
  • Contratto Espansivo: è la forma che permette, sempre attuando la riduzione di orario, di favorire nuove assunzioni a tempo indeterminato. WIKIPEDIA

Ma questa è soltanto una delle possibilità che la crisi offre, ogni istante di questa crisi va utilizzato per rifondare questo sistema, le imprese dovrebbero valorizzare ad di la delle parole, il potenziale umano dei propri dipendenti, attraverso la condivisione, i confronto, manager che scendono dai loro piedistalli e operai che escano dalle loro barricate per incontrarsi, quanti esempi nascosti tuttora presenti, che non fanno rumore, quanti imprenditori che sono un tutt'uno con i propri collaboratori che non conosciamo, esempio di fraternità aziendale che vanno ben oltre le utopie di maniera, oltre il sorriso di coloro che non amano il cambiamento.

Yunus padre del Microcredito vede i poveri non come esseri minori da gestire ma come persone molto capaci, perché, nonostante vivano nella miseria, riescono a sopravvivere, e soprattutto li vede come esseri umani, singoli individui, ognuno con le propria creatività, la propria particolarità, i propri talenti  e con la propria dignità. Secondo Yunus ogni essere umano che nasce, grava sulla società in quanto CONSUMATORE, ma come IMPRENDITORE può avere incalcolabile importanza per la società. 

E' ora che alcuni imprenditori guardino al loro CAPITALE UMANO come singoli esseri umani, singoli individui, perle uniche e rare, ognuno con un potenziale devastante da offrire ma è anche ora che il CAPITALE UMANO riscopra le sue potenzialità condividendole , che vada oltre le barriere ideologiche offrendo collaborazione e tutta la propria professionalità al di la del riconoscimento economico.

Apro una piccola parentesi a proposito di alcune creature della finanza "creativa " quei private equity, spesso considerate a ragione autentiche locuste, creature misteriose che attraverso il ricorso della leva esponenziale, ovvero l'indebitamento senza mettere capitali propri, spogliano le imprese nella loro migrazione di qualsiasi raccolto che imprenditori e collaboratori hanno pazientemente seminato nel corso degli anni, lasciando campi desolanti dietro il loro passaggio. Talvolta queste società aiutano le aziende a ristrutturarsi, a rivivere ma troppo spesso ciò non avviene.

Responsabilità Sociale d'Impresa , non solo bilanci sociali trascritti su un foglio di carta come scrissi......

Il premio Nobel Milton Friedman amava ricordare che la responsabilità sociale delle imprese sul piano economico ed etico consiste nel dovere di ogni manager di perseguire l'interesse esclusivo degli azionisti o soci utilizzando le risorse finanziarie esclusivamente per questo scopo senza " perdere tempo e energie" a cercare inutili benefici sociali o ambientali. Ora non è difficile sostenere che il mondo degli affari talvolta è esclusivamente basato sulla vanità, l'egoismo e l'interesse personale ma la sua insostenibilità sociale, ambientale, la sua frenesia e follia organizzativa richiede un minimo di responsabilità verso quella società in cui opera.  

......è ora di dichiarare fallito questo pensiero estremistico, c'è bisogno di coniugare la necessità di un profitto con la sostenibilità, c'è bisogno di progetti che guardino al di la del breve termine, retribuzioni e premi che siano accompagnati da progetti di lungo respiro, legati ad un senso di appartenenza ad un'azienda ed alla sua filosofia, uomini e donne che abbiano valori che vadano al di là dell'idolatria del denaro, del successo ma che si sentano gratificati anche dalla stima dei propri dipendenti, dei propri manager. Si difficile forse impossibile, ma la vita dell'uomo è fatta di utopie, non può vivere senza le utopie che spesso diventano realtà.

E ora inoltre che al di la della facile demagogia, che si metta fine al divario alle volte impressionante e insostenibile di retribuzioni che sono un'autentica offesa non solo ai sotterranei dell'umanità ma spesso anche nei confronti dei propri collaboratori.

Yunus è illuminante in questa sua frase .......

" Ho  come la sensazione che l'economia basi le sue leggi su presupposti che ignorano gli esseri umani. Tratta gli uomini come macchine e nega gli elementi essenziali della natura umana. Considera gli imprenditori come uomini dalle capacità eccezionali e così ignora le potenzialità della gran massa dell'umanità. L'economia ama definirsi come una scienza sociale ma non lo è! Parla di lavoro e manodopera, non parla di uomini , donne e bambini quindi non può ignorare l'ambiente che pretende di analizzare!"

Alle volte nella semplicità di un progetto, nascono idee rivoluzionarie come il "   Social_Business  " o come quella di Ricardo Semler e la sua " SEMCO " , idee reali e concrete da condividere con chi non vede alternative.

Invito anche coloro che seguono questa avventura a proporre nuove idee, condividere con gli altri realtà esistenti, segnalare imprese e ditte che vivono queste realtà perchè abbiamo tutti bisogno di speranza di comprendere che esistono alternative vere reali.

Vorrei ora ricordare anche la splendida realtà delle Economie Equo Solidali che troverete nei link in cima al mio blog .....

Il Commercio Equo e Solidale è un approccio alternativo al commercio convenzionale; esso promuove giustizia sociale ed economica, sviluppo sostenibile, rispetto per le persone e per l'ambiente, attraverso il commercio, l'educazione e l'azione politica. Il suo scopo è riequilibrare i rapporti con i Paesi economicamente meno sviluppati, migliorando l'accesso al mercato e le condizioni di vita dei produttori svantaggiati, attraverso una più equa distribuzione dei guadagni.
Il Commercio Equo e Solidale è una relazione paritaria fra tutti i soggetti coinvolti nella catena di commercializzazione: produttori, lavoratori, Botteghe del Mondo, importatori e consumatori.

.......ecco che allora la Globalizzazione ha ancora ragione di esistere, una globalizzazione sostenibile, equa e solidale, si ecco il significato della mia visione di un'economia locale integrata dalla globalizzazione, perchè si tratta di solidarietà, di dare dignità al lavoro di milioni e spesso miliardi di esseri umani, alternativamente al commercio delle multinazionali che spesso sappiamo essere delle autentiche locuste.

Dobbiamo tutti fare un passo indietro, in proporzione, ma dobbiamo anche comprendere che non si tratta solo di riempire il nostro mondo di domande e analisi, alle volte le risposte sono più semplici di quello che crediamo e non si tratta solo di poesia o metafore. Ma noi siamo abbituati a pensare troppo e agire poco e allora ci perdiamo dietro riflessioni che lasciano il tempo che trovano e stiamo inerti ad aspettare gli eventi.

In questo viaggio credo di non aver lasciato solo un fiume di parole (.....non ci riesco proprio ma la tensione è quella e prima o poi leggerete solo due righe.......), credo di aver condiviso con Voi molte alternative, non verità assolute ma alternative, che personalmente sperimento ed ho sperimentato nella mia vita,  che partono sempre e solo dal rispetto dell'uomo e della sua essenza, dalla quale si può estrarre un potenziale infinito per essere messo a disposizione della comunità, progetti e sistemi economici reali.

Ora tocca ad ognuno di Noi nel suo piccolo provare ad essere seme del cambiamento, a ritrovare il senso della vita nelle piccole cose di ogni giorno, nella quotidianità, ci vuole coraggio non c'è alcun dubbio, partendo dalla testimonianza, un ripidissima scala che sale nell'infinito della nostra fragilità, ma abbiamo il dovere di provarci, per noi e per i nostri figli, per le giovani generazioni che verranno.

 

Postato da: icebergfinanza a febbraio 28, 2009 12:27 | link | commenti (10)

solidarietà, 0 bilancio sociale, 0 globalizzazione, 0 social business, 0 muhammad yunus, 0 responsabilità sociale, 0 responsabilità sociale dimpre, 0 mondi alternativi, 0 semler ricardo semco




 
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